Latest Trades

Singapore Property Downcycle
POSTED: 23 May 2013 8:05 AM

S'pore trade contracts 9.0% on-year in Q1 2013

SINGAPORE: Singapore’s total trade contracted by 9.0 per cent on-year in the first quarter of 2013, revealed International Enterprise (IE) Singapore on Thursday.

This follows a 2.9 per cent decline in the previous quarter.

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) also dipped by 12.5 per cent on-year in Q1 2013, following the previous quarter’s decline of 4.2 per cent.
say bad inpression still come, really thick skin.Smile
alpha;2567910 said:This SG Talk forum is giving a very bad first impression..
Fewer luxury homes sold to foreign buyers

The Straits Times - May 24, 2013

INDONESIANS retreated from the luxury home market in the first quarter to a much greater extent than buyers from China, India and the United States.

DTZ Research said Indonesian buyers bought 11 resold homes costing over $5 million in the three months to March 31, down from the 22 purchases made in the last quarter of last year - a fall of 50 per cent.

Chinese buyers, who were the most represented foreign nationality in this segment, made 14 transactions, down 12.5 per cent from the preceding quarter.

Buyers from India bought two resale homes worth over $5 million in the quarter, down 60 per cent from five purchases in the preceding three months.

American buyers bought five properties, up from just two in the previous three months - a rise of 150 per cent.

US buyers do not have to pay the 15 per cent additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) imposed on foreigners buying private property, due to clauses in the free trade deal that the country has with Singapore.

Overall, the absolute number of resale transactions shrank in January through March, but the drop was the smallest for foreign buyers.

Foreign purchases in the resale market dropped 19.8 per cent from the preceding quarter while transactions by Singaporeans declined 44.4 per cent and those by permanent residents (PRs) fell 40.5 per cent.

If new sales were included, the number of foreign purchases slid 6.6 per cent from the preceding quarter to 562 units, while purchases by Singaporeans plunged by a sharper 37 per cent to 4,129 units. Deals by PRs tumbled 33.4 per cent to 963 units.

Singaporean and PR buyers have been deterred by the January cooling measures.

Singaporean demand fell the most as these buyers now have to pay ABSD upon buying their second and subsequent properties, DTZ noted.

Also, PRs who own a Housing Board flat must sell the unit within six months of buying a private home.

However, the proportion of foreign buyers is still below the quarterly average of 17.5 per cent in 2011 before the ABSD was introduced.

Popular projects among foreign buyers for new sales included d'Leedon, where they snapped up 85 units, Echelon with 26 sales, Eco Sanctuary, where they picked up 21 apartments, and Q Bay Residences, which sold 15 homes to foreign buyers.

DTZ expects investment demand from individuals to fall this year due to higher stamp duties, stricter financing restrictions and slower rental growth.

*****************Background Story *****************

Overall, the absolute number of resale transactions shrank in January through March... Foreign purchases dropped 19.8 per cent from the preceding quarter while transactions by Singaporeans declined 44.4 per cent and those by PRs fell 40.5 per cent."

Singapore dollar headed for devaluation?

I expect property prices to totally collapse taking down the SGD with it , here is why I say this.

I have seen alot from the 87 crash, 97 crash, dot com bubble , 2008 crash and all have the same characteristic, greed.

For Singapore I believe a devaluation of the currency is coming because the people in charge of MAS currently have no idea what they are doing, they know inflation is high but instead of hiking rates, they still want to control it via exchange rates, they can do both just that they don’t want to.

See the last time when there was the property bubble (97), the URA property index spiked but the M2, money supply did not, so when a crash came and foreigners converted their money and ran it affected the property market but not the forex market.

Now fast forward to 2010 – 2012, you can see the money growth M2 is coinciding together with the URA property index, this means that MAS is printing money, so once a collapse happens and foreigners run converting to USD, MAS will have an excess of S$, now when the entire economy is just printed local currency, there is inflation, hyperinflation, causing the local currency to drop in huge value against the USD, same like in indonesia in 97.

See money supply of MAS from 2007 – 2012, its like they printing like they scared like money is going out of fashion.

Money and quasi money (M2) as % of GDP in Singapore

Now lets see the money supply of indonesia from 1995 – 2000, look at the graph its exactly the same as, its an exact carbon copy of MAS M2 supply in 2012, they are repeating indonesia’s mistake.

Money and quasi money (M2) (current LCU) in Indonesia

Now we all know what happened in Indonesia in 97, we will most probably see a repeat of it but not in Indonesia but here.

My prediction is that property price will go so low that most will be bankrupt or too scared to buy, my prediction is that property prices will drop around 90% compunded with a currency collapse, only those with USD/gold will be saved others will be fried alive.

I believe prices might go back to the 80s, just like what is happening in the USA, but USA is number 1, our crash might be worse maybe prices might go back to the 70s.

By the way someone just offered me a ground floor unit in dubai 2 months back for S$40K the unit faces the open arabian sea, crystal waters better than sentosa cove, it has 2 bedrooms, before the crash this apartment was selling for S$500K, i wonder if this type of crash comes how many will uplorry.

My prediction is that SG property will collapse 80% – 90 % which might cause a devaluation in the SGD same like in Indonesia in 97, they are playing with fire, indonesia learnt its lesson.

If you want to profit from this get hold of every USD you can find as I have been saying many times.

Singapore Business Review

Ghost town alert: Vacant homes up 32% to 16,877

According to Savills, with more homes completed over the past year, the market has seen a significant rise in vacant units islandwide. From the trough in Q1/2011, the number of vacant units has increased by 32% from 12,740 to 16,877 units in Q3/2012, pushing the vacancy rate up from 4.9% to 6.1% over the same period. As of Q3 this year, the number of vacant condos stands at 14,198 units and vacant houses at 2,679 units.

The vacancy rate in the Central region was 7.9% in Q3/2012, above the five-year average of 7.5%. Similarly, the vacancy rates in the eastern and western regions of Singapore were 4.5% and 4.0% in Q3, higher than the 3.5% and 3.6% five-year averages respectively.

The number of vacant units is set to increase in the months ahead as an avalanche of new homes will be completed within the next two years. According to URA data, 91,869 new homes will be released to the market in the next four years, more than half of which have been sold. The growing supply of new homes poses a significant risk to investors who have bought private homes for rental investment, particularly if interest rates should rise.
Singapore Business Review

Here's where the real trouble in the property market comes

OCBC cautions of a formidable wave of completed units to hit in FY14-15.

"We see private residential completion increasing dramatically in FY14-15 with ~42k units being completed. With a similar spike in HDB completions in FY14-15 (est. 48k units) and expected slower population growth of 100k pa ahead, we see the capita per physical home ratio begin falling in FY13," it said.

OCBC notes that if most of these units are not owner occupied, the secondary market could start seeing downward price pressure as well as pressure on residential rental levels.
Singapore Business Review

Singapore must brace itself for 200,000 new homes

In a blog post, Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan said that some 200,000 new housing units will be constructed. 80,000 of which are private properties, 10,000 are ECs and about 110,000 are public housing. "This is equivalent to the building of four new Ang Mo Kio towns by 2016, and we are still building more," he wrote.
Singapore Business Review

Resale of private homes in Singapore plunged 43.3%

Published: 29 May 2013

According to DTZ Research, Resale transaction volume fell sharply following the imposition of the cooling measures in January. Resales of private homes fell by 43.3% q-o-q in Q1 across all submarkets.

"On a y-o-y basis, resale transactions fell by 11.2% compared to Q1 2012. Notably, resale volume remained weak on a monthly basis till April 2013.

This is a stark contrast to a year ago after the imposition of the ABSD for the first time. Resale transactions had made a strong rebound in March 2012 as buyers found better value in the resale market after some projects in the primary market set benchmark prices. In comparison, developers were more competitive in their pricing strategies this year," said DTZ Research.
Singapore Business Review

Condos bought by Singaporeans dropped by 37% to 4,129 units

Published: 29 May 2013

According to DTZ Research, the number of foreign purchases declined by 6.6% q-o-q to 562 units while Singaporean and Permanent Residents (PR) purchases fell by a larger 37.0% and 33.4% to 4,129 and 963 units respectively. Purchases by companies fell the most by 73.3% to only 27 units in Q1 2013, the lowest since Q1 2009.
Users browsing: 1 Guest(s)

Forum Jump: