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8-12-2012 11:03 PM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
Reputation: 3
Losing patience with cna forum.
Firstly, my account was banned for no obvious reason.

Then yesterday, realized that a lot of threads (including my thread on STI) have disappeared.

If that is how cna forum is run, that could possibly be the push factor .... to SG Talk.

So, starting this new thread on STI here Happy:
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10-12-2012 11:24 AM
firebear Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 454
Reputation: 2
i was banned for nothing too..... did not register again although feel like doing it as feel like scold a few troll and daft people....
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10-12-2012 9:45 PM
talkcover Offline
First Class Elite

Posts: 8,162
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8-12-2012 11:03 PMpacific wroteLosing patience with cna forum.
Firstly, my account was banned for no obvious reason.

Then yesterday, realized that a lot of threads (including my thread on STI) have disappeared.

If that is how cna forum is run, that could possibly be the push factor .... to SG Talk.

So, starting this new thread on STI here Happy:

STI not political topic, maybe you too accurate or your post
conflicts those CNA invited institution views.
Laughing:
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11-12-2012 10:18 PM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
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Had made copy of my deleted cna thread from beginning (Jan 2012) to early Oct.

To put it out of the reach of the cna forum admin, decided to put up the copy of the thread up in the "clouds" (see below).

Part 1 (Jan to Mar 2012):

http://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8QaratO9nxTWnFFNXFGbDNfelU/edit

Part 2 (Mar to May 2012):

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8QaratO9nxTUExWQ2J3REdpY1E/edit

Part 3 (May to Jul 2012):
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8QaratO9nxTcV83aUxvaVRWcFU/edit

Part 4 (Jul to Oct 2012):
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8QaratO9nxTZUVrNFIxeGlKSFk/edit

Aware that not many pple would actually read the above, its more for my own archive.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reference to the same post in cna:

http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/showthread.php?314278-Trading-the-STI-index

Will see how things go in both cna and SG talk forums.
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11-12-2012 10:47 PM
wiley Offline
the whale

Posts: 6,125
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pacific, u r one serious guy. i make a point to read it when i come here clap

c( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)ɔ “A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.” From “As You Like It,” by William Shakespeare
(This post was last modified: 11-12-2012 10:48 PM by wiley.)
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12-12-2012 10:53 PM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
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Since we are nearing the end of the year, it is a good time to look back at 2012:

Bear with me, as this will be a long post. Even if most do not read through thoroughly, this post is more for archive purpose.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In summary, there were 2 major predictions posted in CNA forum during 2012:

1st forecast (CNA forum)

31 Jan 12 (post #13):
Quote:My preliminary outlook for 2012:

1. Around 22nd Feb, if a top forms, that may be a good time to sell.

2. If 22nd Feb ends up a low instead, then the top may be soon after mid March.

Now to see what the STI actually did .......

"Around 22nd Feb" ...... STI made a top of 3031 on 21 Feb, then fell to 2907.

"soon after mid March" ..... STI then made a very major double top of 3036 on 16 Mar. Then the market started to decline.

The 2 predicted dates turned out to be the top (double tops) for the first half of 2012. They held for about 4-5 months, and were not crossed until July.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd forecast (CNA forum)

20 Sep 12 (post #96):
Quote:As we head into the last quarter of the year, 2 dates worth watching (for the STI) are:

1) Early October, say, between the 3rd to 5th. This is one year from the sharp low of 2522 last year, and people are likely to remember that severe decline.

2) First half of November. Since it is rather far away, will just put an indicative period, say from the 9th to 16th. When the time gets nearer, hope to be able to zoom in to more specific dates. Do note that the major top of 3314 was on 9 Nov 2010.


"Early October, say, between the 3rd to 5th" ..... the first top in the 4th quarter came in at 3111 on 5 Oct, within the projected period in my outlook.

"First half of November .. from the 9th to 16th" ....... STI made a major low of 2932 on 16 Nov, and that was the low for the 4th quarter of 2012.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Perhaps it is easier to view the forecasts and actual by looking at the 2012 chart for STI:

Chart of STI 2012



What is the probability of picking in advance 4 dates/time period, and have all the 4 dates showing either major tops or bottoms?
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12-12-2012 10:56 PM
wiley Offline
the whale

Posts: 6,125
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hey, can teach me how you do your prediction?

c( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)ɔ “A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.” From “As You Like It,” by William Shakespeare
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13-12-2012 9:41 PM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
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12-12-2012 10:56 PMwiley wrotehey, can teach me how you do your prediction?

There's no lack of experts and gurus conducting trading courses, evidenced by the numerous newspapers/email ads. Am not into teaching, nor certified to teach.

Furthermore, my "market philosophy" is probably not shared/accepted by most.

From an old CNA forum posting (23 Sep 2012):

Quote:What causes market movements? Often wonder how pple view the workings of the markets.

The general consensus is that there are 2 types of basic beliefs about the markets. Depending on which camp an investor/trader subscribes to, he will either prefer to use fundamental analysis or technical analysis, or a combination of both.

My bias is towards technical analysis. Even beyond TA, my belief is that there is harmony in the markets (as indicated in my profile). There is a balance of price and time, and even what happened long ago does impact what happens today, or what happens in the days to come. Fully aware that not many will agree with such a view.

My belief is that there is harmony in the STI bottoming out at 2522 on 5/10/11, and also why the STI made a low of 2699 on 4/6/12.

In fact, there's always reasons why the index makes tops and bottoms, just that we are normally unable to figure things out, especially in advance. And these reasons are not related to the latest economic news (oil price, inflation, earnings, unemployment numbers, etc). Instead they are based on the charts and history of the index.
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13-12-2012 11:59 PM
sticw Online
Mere Mortal

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Nice thread. Outlook and views for next 3 to 6 months?
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14-12-2012 11:05 AM
pacific Offline
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13-12-2012 11:59 PMsticw wroteNice thread. Outlook and views for next 3 to 6 months?

Would normally would refrain from posting views, unless there is strong conviction (i.e. analysis that stands out). Most of the time, one just looks at the chart and makes the best guess.

Due to commitments outside of the markets, unable to spend sufficient time lately to come up with views worth posting.

From a previous comment in cna forum (13 Nov 2012):

cna forum: STI's Movements for next few months

Quote:Originally Posted by olamsupport
STI targetting 2950 first, then 2849 then rebound somewhere in Jan before heading South again to kiss 2799 and up to create new high >3100 by March 2013. After that, God bless us... I'm betting after March 2013, STI is going to run road and we see what we saw in 2007-2008. Major correction.. I wouldn't say crash because thats buying opportunity to many.
Quote:Posted by pacific
Perhaps its just coincidence, also expecting major shake up in Mar 2013.

So only view on 2013 so far is: expecting a bit of a panic probably around mid Mar. The reason for the shake up can come from various different sources.

Before that, think the STI should be doing ok. Will post more specific view when time permits, likely next month.
(This post was last modified: 14-12-2012 11:07 AM by pacific.)
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