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7-5-2014 11:02 AM
pacific Offline
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8 Mar 14 (post #134):
Quote:At the moment, will view 2953 low as quite significant, even as a possible low for the year, but with a caveat.

The caveat is some event triggering a big decline in the index sometime in May (sell in May and go away?).
In that scenario, possible to end up with a spike low (below 2953) in early June.

Above forecast was made exactly 2 months earlier.

As it is less than 1 month before early June, might be timely to do an update of the forecast.
Looking at how strongly the STI advanced (up 332 points to high of 3285 on 24 Apr), the risk of the "caveat" seems to have passed i.e. the 2953 low of 4 Feb is unlikely to be broken by a low in early June.

So the 2953 low will be significant, even as a possible/likely low for the year.

[STI index = 3229]

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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9-5-2014 9:42 AM
pacific Offline
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Reposted from SGX Technical Analysis fb:

"Less than a month before early June.

With the STI advancing quite strongly (up 332 points to 3285 high on 24 April), any correction not likely to be severe.
Still watching for early June before buying. For price, say 3166.

As always, time is more impt than price.
Just my view."

[STI index = 3244]

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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9-5-2014 9:45 AM
HSI Offline
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so sti may go higher before go down,or go down then go higher? thanks

people now are worried about dow, if they enter bear market, sti sure also bear
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12-5-2014 2:29 PM
pacific Offline
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9-5-2014 9:45 AMHSI wroteso sti may go higher before go down,or go down then go higher? thanks

people now are worried about dow, if they enter bear market, sti sure also bear

don't really track the Dow very closely, so no comment about how the Dow may affect the STI.

as mentioned earlier, looking for a mild low in early June, only for the STI (not Dow or other markets).

[STI index = 3229]

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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13-5-2014 4:15 PM
HSI Offline
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from the chart it is not easy to predict either it will move up or down

sometimes stock market is affected by news

chart say it may move down, but some good news appear so it move up instead

so can't just look at the chart alone
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28-5-2014 10:30 PM
pacific Offline
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Coming to the end of May, and the STI is trading near the high of the year.

Still of the opinion that early June, say around the 4th or 5th, would be an important time period.
Curious to see what the market has to unveil.

[STI index = 3272]

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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6-6-2014 8:37 AM
HSI Offline
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so you are saying market now is to go up or down?
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6-6-2014 9:18 AM
pacific Offline
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6-6-2014 8:37 AMHSI wroteso you are saying market now is to go up or down?

The earlier post was just looking at how the forecast (turn in early May) compares to reality, just to be 'accountable' for what was posted.

The last forecast date is 'early June, from 3rd to 5th of June', and we are in the midst of the forecast period. The movement of the STI has been quite tricky lately.
But if 3272 low on 5th June is to be turning point, the STI should be moving up in the immediate timeframe.

[STI index = 3289]

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
(This post was last modified: 6-6-2014 9:19 AM by pacific.)
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21-6-2014 3:55 PM
pacific Offline
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Earlier posts:

12 May 14 (#176):
Quote:as mentioned earlier, looking for a mild low in early June, only for the STI (not Dow or other markets).

28 May 14 (#179):
Quote:Still of the opinion that early June, say around the 4th or 5th, would be an important time period.
Curious to see what the market has to unveil
.

6 Jun 14 (#182):
Quote:The last forecast date is 'early June, from 3rd to 5th of June', and we are in the midst of the forecast period. The movement of the STI has been quite tricky lately.
But if 3272 low on 5th June is to be turning point, the STI should be moving up in the immediate timeframe.

The STI market has indeed been quite tricky lately.

Those who read the earlier postings would know that the original forecast for early June for for a possible sharp low.

As early June approaches, the forecast was 'downgraded' to a mild bottom; based on the movement of the market up till then.

At end of May, the opinion is that early June would still be important, although it is not clear whether a bottom or top would be formed.

This is how early June turned out, in chart form:

[Image: STIDailyJune2014_zpsf916334b.jpg]

The original expectation (from months back) was for a bottom, but early June produced tops instead.
To be precise, double tops i.e. 3309 top on 29 May and 3311 top on 9 June.
The 'average' of these 2 dates: 3rd/4th June
.

Occasionally, the markets do come up with such 'tricks', where the pressure for a bottom ends up with the market showing a top instead (or vice versa).

Tricky, and not easy to handle, but the market was still showing that early June is an important time period for the STI.

If the above doesn't make sense, just give it a pass Smile

[STI index = 3259]

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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24-6-2014 2:43 PM
pacific Offline
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2nd half of 2014

8 Mar 14 (#134):
Quote:Scanning beyond the very short term, early September may be interesting for a top for the STI.

30 Apr 14 (#171):
Quote:The date of early September first mentioned in March is looking more and more interesting.

Depending on how the market develops in early June, could be watching out for a major top around the period 5th to 10th Sep.
Still a few more months to go, so just keep in file.

The early June forecast ended up with tops, instead of bottom. That sort of 'messes' up the outlook a bit.

In any case, will still be watching the period 5th to 10th September.

Another possible date for an important STI turn would be late November, say 27th or 28th.

Won't be surprised if one of the above dates end up as high for the year.

These are the 2 dates to watch, but how the market develops from here may lead to some fine-tuning Smile

Overall, expecting the STI to be on the up move in the 2nd half, and the correction from the 3309 top (29 May) and 3311 top (9 June) may not be much in terms of price.

Just my view.

[STI index = 3266]

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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