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14-12-2012 11:21 AM
sticw Offline
Mere Mortal

Posts: 9,309
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Thanks.
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16-12-2012 11:14 PM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
Reputation: 3
Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas !

Book of Isaiah:
Quote:For to us a child is born,
to us a son is given,
and the government will be on his shoulders.
And he will be called
Wonderful Counselor, Mighty God,
Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace.

Gospel of Luke:
Quote:And there were shepherds living out in the fields nearby, keeping watch over their flocks at night.

An angel of the Lord appeared to them, and the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were terrified.

But the angel said to them, “Do not be afraid. I bring you good news of great joy that will be for all the people. Today in the town of David a Savior has been born to you; he is Christ the Lord.

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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14-1-2013 11:08 PM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
Reputation: 3
14 Dec 12 (post #10):
Quote:So only view on 2013 so far is: expecting a bit of a panic probably around mid Mar. The reason for the shake up can come from various different sources.

Before that, think the STI should be doing ok. Will post more specific view when time permits, likely next month.

Looking at the first half of 2013 for the STI, 3 dates appear rather important:

1) 7 Jan 13.
This date has already past, and the STI high on that date was 3238. Possible for 3238 to be a decent top, as the index has virtually advanced non-stop since the low of 2932 on 16/11/12.

2) 25 Feb 13.
It so happened that the government announced that 25/2 will be Budget Day. Perhaps the budget will trigger off a change in trend?

3) 5 Jun 13.
Last year's major low was 2699 on 4/6/12.
Would be watching for a top instead this year.

As usual, the market is always right, and time will unveil everything.

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
(This post was last modified: 14-1-2013 11:09 PM by pacific.)
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27-2-2013 10:43 AM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
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posted in Genting thread:
Quote:There are signals indicating that the dates around 5th Feb may be important to watch for Genting SP ..... in the dying days of the year of the dragon Smile

Genting made a top of 1640 on 13 Feb (4 trading days after 5th Feb). So the 5th Feb forecast for Genting was not spot on.

However, that date was not ignored by the STI, which made a top of 3319 on 4th Feb. Since that top, it has been trading in a range for about 3 weeks, touching a low of 3251 on 26/2.

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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27-2-2013 3:56 PM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
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14 Dec 12 (post #10):
Quote:So only view on 2013 so far is: expecting a bit of a panic probably around mid Mar. The reason for the shake up can come from various different sources.

Before that, think the STI should be doing ok.

Above post was made in mid Dec when the STI was trading around 3160 level.

Looking at the STI from mid Dec to now (STI at 3264), it is clear that the STI has doing "better than ok". Volatility was low, with the index merely creeping up and down (more up, obviously).

2 more days, and we will be starting the month of March.

Will we see an increase in volatility in the index, and a bit of a panic in March?

Remains to be seen, and if it does come to that, analysts and market commentators would be ready to provide the reasons why Smile

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
(This post was last modified: 27-2-2013 4:06 PM by pacific.)
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28-2-2013 11:18 AM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
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14 Jan 13 (post #16):
Quote:Looking at the first half of 2013 for the STI, 3 dates appear rather important:

1) 7 Jan 13.
This date has already past, and the STI high on that date was 3238. Possible for 3238 to be a decent top, as the index has virtually advanced non-stop since the low of 2932 on 16/11/12.

2) 25 Feb 13.
It so happened that the government announced that 25/2 will be Budget Day. Perhaps the budget will trigger off a change in trend?

3) 5 Jun 13.
Last year's major low was 2699 on 4/6/12.
Would be watching for a top instead this year.

As for any forecast which includes specific dates, the market will always eventually gauge its accuracy.

We are in the midst of the 3 dates stated, so it would a good time to have a preliminary look:

Quote:1) 7 Jan 13.
This date has already past, and the STI high on that date was 3238. Possible for 3238 to be a decent top, as the index has virtually advanced non-stop since the low of 2932 on 16/11/12.

This date was not a forecast since the post was made after the 3238 high.
As it turned out, the STI just did a one-day spike low to 3161 on 16/1. Actually that low is debatable, as it was due to a freak spike down by HK Land on that day. In any case, the 3161 low is the official low of the STI for the month of January, and is the current low for the year 2013.

Conclusion: 3238 on 7/1 turned out to be a top, but was not anything major.

Quote:2) 25 Feb 13.
It so happened that the government announced that 25/2 will be Budget Day. Perhaps the budget will trigger off a change in trend?

This 2nd date was a forecast, in that it was posted about 6 weeks in advance.

Apparently, the budget announcement was a non-event.

However, on 26 Feb the STI fell to a low of 3251. Which should be the low for the month of February (unless it spikes down today - anything can happen, and the market is always right).

So it remains to be seen whether the 3251 low on 26/2 is a bottom, or just a pause in the decline.

Quote:3) 5 Jun 13.
Last year's major low was 2699 on 4/6/12.
Would be watching for a top instead this year.

A few more months to go, and time will unveil everything.

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
(This post was last modified: 28-2-2013 12:33 PM by pacific.)
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6-3-2013 7:04 PM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

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14 Dec 12 (post #10):
Quote:So only view on 2013 so far is: expecting a bit of a panic probably around mid Mar. The reason for the shake up can come from various different sources.

Before that, think the STI should be doing ok. Will post more specific view when time permits, likely next month.

27 Feb 13 (post #18):
Quote:2 more days, and we will be starting the month of March.

Will we see an increase in volatility in the index, and a bit of a panic in March?

Remains to be seen, and if it does come to that, analysts and market commentators would be ready to provide the reasons why Smile

One simple way to gauge the volatility is to compare the daily closing index to the previous day's closing.

Looking over the past 6 months, the volatility of the STI have been quite low.

No. of days closing up/down 30 points or more:

Sep 12: 1
Oct 12: 2
Nov 12: 4 (2932 low on 16 Nov)
Dec 12: 0

Jan 13: 1
Feb 13: 2

March 2013
So far, there have been only 4 trading days in March, and out of the 4 days, 2 days (including today) already showed a closing difference of 30 points or more.

Interesting to see whether this is a sign of greater volatility in March.

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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6-3-2013 10:38 PM
pacific Offline
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Yesterday, on 4th March, the STI went to a low of 3235.

The date of 4/3/13 has been on the watch list for a long time, and its significance should not be discounted.

The Lehman Brothers crash in 2008 ended in a final low of 1455 for the STI on 10/3/09.

These dates could very well be related.

[those who have no interest in the history of the index, plse ignore this post ]

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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7-3-2013 12:34 PM
wildbore Offline
TCSS

Posts: 906
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Keep more coming ... like this thread ...
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11-3-2013 4:00 PM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
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Waiting to see which way the wind blows .......

For a long time, have been factoring in the possibility of a shake-up in the month of March; specifically around mid March.

Then on 4th March, the STI made a low of 3235. As stated in earlier post, this date is a significant date, and a turning point (in this case, a low) made on a significant date could be important.

So, there's push & pull in both directions.
(Perhaps the market is also waiting to see what actions (if any) the government may take).

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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