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Straits Times Index
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15-3-2013 10:59 AM
pacific Offline
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11-3-2013 4:00 PMpacific wroteWaiting to see which way the wind blows .......

For a long time, have been factoring in the possibility of a shake-up in the month of March; specifically around mid March.

Then on 4th March, the STI made a low of 3235. As stated in earlier post, this date is a significant date, and a turning point (in this case, a low) made on a significant date could be important.

So, there's push & pull in both directions.
(Perhaps the market is also waiting to see what actions (if any) the government may take).

We started the week with STI at 3295, and currently the STI is trading at about the same level, 3293.

Probably shows how undecided the market is. As always, the market can either go up or down.

Note that there were multiple tops around the same level:
3314 on 9/11/10
3319 on 4/2/13
3312 on 20/2/13
3317 on 12/3/13

If the STI can cross and close above these levels, it should behave like the Dow which has been setting record highs lately.

But for now, it's wait and see.

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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18-3-2013 9:54 AM
pacific Offline
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14 Dec 12 (post #10):

Quote:So only view on 2013 so far is: expecting a bit of a panic probably around mid Mar. The reason for the shake up can come from various different sources.

Before that, think the STI should be doing ok.

Today is first trading day after mid March.

No real shake up as yet, but do sense the market is a bit more anxious than usual.

Today's Straits Times Markets Insight:
Quote:"Ides of March are over, but wilder swings lie ahead ..... Fears linger over property market, run-up in US equites".
"investors are worried about the impact of further cooling measures on the residential market .......
there is another worry: Wall Street cruised to record high levels amid optimism over the United States econonmy and central bank stimulus ...... "

Will see which way the wind blows.

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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27-3-2013 2:12 PM
pacific Offline
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To recap:
For a long time, was expecting a top for the STI around mid March, and "a bit of panic and shake-up"

14 Dec 12 (post #10):
Quote:So only view on 2013 so far is: expecting a bit of a panic probably around mid Mar. The reason for the shake up can come from various different sources.

Before that, think the STI should be doing ok.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Then came the sharp low of 3235 on 4th March. Seeing that it happened on that date, saw the possibility of the low holding (which means the panic in mid-March might not be as severe).

6 Mar 13 (post #21):
Quote:Yesterday, on 4th March, the STI went to a low of 3235.

The date of 4/3/13 has been on the watch list for a long time, and its significance should not be discounted.

The Lehman Brothers crash in 2008 ended in a final low of 1455 for the STI on 10/3/09.

These dates could very well be related.

[those who have no interest in the history of the index, plse ignore this post Smile]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What happened since the low of 3235 on 4/3?

The STI made a third top at 3317 on 12/3 Tue; that is near enough to mid-March as forecasted.

The index then drifted down until Friday 15/3. Those watching closely on Friday will know that there was "a bit of panic" right at the closing. People called it "post market dump", "Freaky Friday", etc. A good example was the "mini crash" of capital land - it was trading at about 352 right up to 5pm, then the price crashed to gap-down price of 3.40, and the volume was gigantic (4.4million shares in 5 minutes). Same thing happened to quite a number of other stocks like CityDev, Suntec Reit, Wilmar.

Straits Times Insight reported on 18/3 Mon:
Quote:"Ides of March are over, but wilder swings lie ahead ..... Fears linger over property market, run-up in US equites".

Well, the STI only fell to low of 3248 on 20/3, and has now recovered to above 3300.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To summarize:

The STI had a mini-panic triggered at the closing minutes of trading on 15/3, and my take is that there could have been a shake-up, but the decline was contained.

Specifically, the decline was supported (just my personal view) by the low of 3235 on the important date of 4/3.

End of the long story ..... let's see where the STI (currently 3308) goes from here.

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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28-3-2013 11:40 PM
pacific Offline
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Happy Easter to one and all !

(the most important event in the history of mankind Smile)

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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2-4-2013 6:14 PM
pacific Offline
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14 Jan 13 (post #16):
Quote:Looking at the first half of 2013 for the STI, 3 dates appear rather important:

1) 7 Jan 13.
This date has already past, and the STI high on that date was 3238. Possible for 3238 to be a decent top, as the index has virtually advanced non-stop since the low of 2932 on 16/11/12.

2) 25 Feb 13.
It so happened that the government announced that 25/2 will be Budget Day. Perhaps the budget will trigger off a change in trend?


3) 5 Jun 13.
Last year's major low was 2699 on 4/6/12.
Would be watching for a top instead this year.

As usual, the market is always right, and time will unveil everything.
By now sufficient time has passed for the 2nd forecast date (25th Feb) to be reviewed.

On 26/2 there was a very small low at 3251, but that lasted for only 3 days.

Then on 4th March, the STI had a sharp drop to a low of 3235.

Recognized it as a possible important low on 6 Mar 13 (post #21):
Quote:Yesterday, on 4th March, the STI went to a low of 3235.

The date of 4/3/13 has been on the watch list for a long time, and its significance should not be discounted.

The Lehman Brothers crash in 2008 ended in a final low of 1455 for the STI on 10/3/09.

These dates could very well be related.

[those who have no interest in the history of the index, plse ignore this post Smile]
On one hand, the forecast date of 25th Feb did not come in Sad (off by abt a week).

On the other hand, the final low on 4th March happened on a significant date .... so in that sense, it was not a complete surprise, and "due respect" was given to 4th March even on the day itself.

That leaves the last forecast date of 5th June, which is expected to be a top.

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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20-4-2013 6:05 PM
pacific Offline
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The STI has been range-bound since February. High of 3331 on 3/4 and low of 3235 on 4/3, range of only 96 points.

As mentioned previously, next forecast date is 5th June, still several weeks more.

In the near term, would be watching around 26 Apr, Friday.
The index has been moving rather slowly lately, so not expecting any big move. For price, 3347 would be a good level to watch. (as always, price is not as important as time)

Just something for a lazy Saturday evening.

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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6-5-2013 10:56 AM
pacific Offline
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20 Apr 13 (#29):
Quote:The STI has been range-bound since February. High of 3331 on 3/4 and low of 3235 on 4/3, range of only 96 points.

As mentioned previously, next forecast date is 5th June, still several weeks more.

In the near term, would be watching around 26 Apr, Friday.
The index has been moving rather slowly lately, so not expecting any big move. For price, 3347 would be a good level to watch. (as always, price is not as important as time)

Above post made on 20 Apr, when STI was trading at 3294.

On 26 Apr, STI did reach the 3347 target, and was churning around that level; range on that day was 3340 to 3353, and closed at 3349.
But it continued to push up the next 3 trading days, to reach a high of 3405 on 2 May.

Still expecting 5th June to be an important date to watch.
(Price wise, 3550 would be a nice round number).

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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9-5-2013 11:41 PM
pacific Offline
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One keeps hearing about "sell in May and go away".

Let's take the myth out of the old saying by looking at the hard facts.

Perhaps a good way to look at it is to see what happens when one buys on the first trading day of May, and closes the trade on the last trading day.

Here's what happened over the 20 year for the STI:

Year Percentage gain/(loss)

1993 6% gain
1994 (-1%) loss
1995 5%
1996 (-3%)
1997 3%
1998 (-16%)
1999 1%
2000 (-17%)
2001 (-5%)
2002 (-4%)
2003 5%
2004 (-3%)
2005 1%
2006 (-9%)
2007 3%
2008 0%
2009 20%
2010 (-7%)
2011 (-1%)
2012 (-7%)

There were 11 years with losses, 8 years with gains, and 1 year breakeven.
Average loss -6.6%; average gain +5.5%.

Bedtime reading Smile

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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14-5-2013 1:46 PM
sticw Offline
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Do one for last day of May to first day of Jul.
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19-5-2013 10:16 PM
pacific Offline
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14-5-2013 1:46 PMsticw wroteDo one for last day of May to first day of Jul.

As requested, below shows what happens when one buys on the last day of May and sells on the first day of July:

1993 (-5%) loss
1994 (-3%)
1995 (-4%)
1996 (-2%)
1997 (-4%)
1998 (-13%)
1999 16% gain
2000 15%
2001 3%
2002 (-7%)
2003 8%
2004 3%
2005 2%
2006 2%
2007 1%
2008 (-9%)
2009 1%
2010 2%
2011 (-1%)
2012 5%

There were 11 years with gains, and 9 years with losses.
Avg gain is +5.3%; avg loss is -5.3%.

Once again, bedtime reading .....

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
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