Login . Register .
Latest Trades
TinyTokCLOSEDLONG2.45%SINGTEL
TinyTokOPENLONG$0.730Q & M DENTAL GROUP (S) LIM
TinyTokOPENLONG$1.475RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
Post Reply 
Straits Times Index
Author Message
19-5-2013 10:42 PM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
Reputation: 3
While we are still looking at the myth of May, here's what happens if one buys on the first trading day of May, and hold for 2 months; then sells out on the first trading day of July:

1993 15% gain
1994 (-4%) loss
1995 1%
1996 (-5%)
1997 (-1%)
1998 (-27%)
1999 17%
2000 (-5%)
2001 (-2%)
2002 (-11%)
2003 14%
2004 0%
2005 3%
2006 (-7%)
2007 5%
2008 (-9%)
2009 21%
2010 (-5%)
2011 (-1%)
2012 (-3%)

There were 12 years of losses, 7 years of gain, and 1 year breakeven.
Avg loss was -6.7%, avg gain was +10.9%.

Personally, these are merely observations regarding the month of May; just something to note, but not so relevant to actual trading Smile

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
21-5-2013 10:08 PM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
Reputation: 3
6 Mar 13 (#21):
Quote:Yesterday, on 4th March, the STI went to a low of 3235.

The date of 4/3/13 has been on the watch list for a long time, and its significance should not be discounted.

The Lehman Brothers crash in 2008 ended in a final low of 1455 for the STI on 10/3/09.

These dates could very well be related.
Looking back at an old post.....

2 days after the STI made a low of 3235 on 4th March, that date was recognized to be significant.

About 2 and a half months have passed, and this low of 3235 has indeed held very well. In fact, to date the STI has climbed 223 points from that low, reaching a high of 3458 on 20/5.

(current STI = 3444)

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
22-5-2013 6:59 PM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
Reputation: 3
14 Jan 13 (#16):
Quote:Looking at the first half of 2013 for the STI, 3 dates appear rather important:

1) 7 Jan 13.
This date has already past, and the STI high on that date was 3238. Possible for 3238 to be a decent top, as the index has virtually advanced non-stop since the low of 2932 on 16/11/12.

2) 25 Feb 13.
It so happened that the government announced that 25/2 will be Budget Day. Perhaps the budget will trigger off a change in trend?

3) 5 Jun 13.
Last year's major low was 2699 on 4/6/12.
Would be watching for a top instead this year.

6 May 13 (#30):
Quote:Still expecting 5th June to be an important date to watch.
(Price wise, 3550 would be a nice round number).

Finally, we are within sight of the 5th June forecast date.
Looking through the paperwork, essentially no change to the forecast. Watching for a top around there.

There are 9 more trading days to 5th June.

Today's high for the STI was 3465; so for the index to reach 3550, another 85 points needed.

As always, time is more important than the price, and the market is always right Smile

(current STI = 3454)

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
24-5-2013 11:13 AM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
Reputation: 3
Since the market is always right, one must be open to the possibility of the market moving against one's expectation.

With the big drop in the STI yesterday, where is the index headed?

2 ways to view the big drop yesterday:
1) a quick but sharp correction to the overbought market. After being straightened out, the STI may continue its upward march to new high in early June.

2) a signal that the STI is poised to fall further sharply.
Should the decline continue, possible bottom around 17 June, Monday.

In any case, still looking for a top around 5 June.
Could be either a new high, or just a relief lower top in the midst of a decline.

(current STI = 3393)

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
1-6-2013 9:07 PM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
Reputation: 3
9 May 13 (#31):
Quote:One keeps hearing about "sell in May and go away".

Let's take the myth out of the old saying by looking at the hard facts.

Perhaps a good way to look at it is to see what happens when one buys on the first trading day of May, and closes the trade on the last trading day.

Here's what happened over the 20 year for the STI:

Year Percentage gain/(loss)

1993 6% gain
1994 (-1%) loss
1995 5%
1996 (-3%)
1997 3%
1998 (-16%)
1999 1%
2000 (-17%)
2001 (-5%)
2002 (-4%)
2003 5%
2004 (-3%)
2005 1%
2006 (-9%)
2007 3%
2008 0%
2009 20%
2010 (-7%)
2011 (-1%)
2012 (-7%)

There were 11 years with losses, 8 years with gains, and 1 year breakeven.
Average loss -6.6%; average gain +5.5%.

May STI opened at 3370 and closed the month at 3311.

Just to update the stats.

2013 (-2%)


With 2013, there were 12 years with losses, 8 years with gain, and 1 year breakeven
Avg loss -6.2%; avg gain +5.5%

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
6-6-2013 2:29 PM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
Reputation: 3
Just for info, STI opened the year 2013 at 3189.

(current index = 3195)

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
12-6-2013 9:54 PM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
Reputation: 3
24 May 13 (#37):
Quote:With the big drop in the STI yesterday, where is the index headed?

2 ways to view the big drop yesterday:
1) a quick but sharp correction to the overbought market. After being straightened out, the STI may continue its upward march to new high in early June.

2) a signal that the STI is poised to fall further sharply.
Should the decline continue, possible bottom around 17 June, Monday.

In any case, still looking for a top around 5 June.
Could be either a new high, or just a relief lower top in the midst of a decline.

(current STI = 3393)

The art of forecasting .... post possibility of market going up; if not up then market will go down.
Above post seems to be a good example Smile

Despite covering both directions, 5 June date ended up with nothing. The STI kept on falling through 5 June, with no sign of let-up.

However will definitely be watching around the 17 June date for a turn.

(current STI = 3153)

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
14-6-2013 9:55 AM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
Reputation: 3
24 May 13 (#37):
Quote:With the big drop in the STI yesterday, where is the index headed?

2 ways to view the big drop yesterday:
1) a quick but sharp correction to the overbought market. After being straightened out, the STI may continue its upward march to new high in early June.

2) a signal that the STI is poised to fall further sharply.
Should the decline continue, possible bottom around 17 June, Monday
.
Obviously the first view was not selected by the market, and the STI apparently chose the second view and went on to fall sharply.

Yesterday was 13/6 Thursday, and is just 2 trading days before the target date.
That would actually put 13/6 within the valid zone of the expected turn date.

(current index = 3157)

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
18-6-2013 11:55 AM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
Reputation: 3
So the STI made a low of 3095 on 13/6 Thursday.

As indicated in the previous post, this date is within the valid zone of the target date of 17/6 Monday.

Looking at the STI chart, ever since the top of 3465 on 22/5, it is obvious that there was no sign of the market bottoming out, until 13/6.

The 3095 low could be a significant low, perhaps even the low for the year.
But after such a sharp decline from the 3465 top, it would take more than 3 days of advance to confirm the importance of the 3095 low.

Looking farther ahead, 18 July or thereabout could be a time to watch.

(current index = 3219)

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
25-6-2013 10:49 AM
pacific Offline
Senior Sheep

Posts: 304
Reputation: 3
18 Jun 13 (#42):
Quote:So the STI made a low of 3095 on 13/6 Thursday.

As indicated in the previous post, this date is within the valid zone of the target date of 17/6 Monday.

Looking at the STI chart, ever since the top of 3465 on 22/5, it is obvious that there was no sign of the market bottoming out, until 13/6.

The 3095 low could be a significant low, perhaps even the low for the year.
But after such a sharp decline from the 3465 top, it would take more than 3 days of advance to confirm the importance of the 3095 low.

After a 4 day rally, the 3095 low was eventually broken, and the low so far is 3065 on 21 June.

The 2 lows of 3095 (13/6) and 3065 (21/6) taken together is still acceptable for the 17 June target date.

This is provided the 3065 of 21 June low is not broken. If that is broken, then the market is signalling that it is following a different path from that indicated by the 17 June target date.

(current STI = 3093)

underlying belief : there is harmony in the markets, not random.
(This post was last modified: 25-6-2013 10:53 AM by pacific.)
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 
User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)

Forum Jump:
Contact . Privacy . Rules .  RSS . Back-to-Top