Apple at US$300 and Dow at 30,000
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The most hated bull market continues as many retail investors and even funds are not on board yet.
With Europe in structural decline, capital and money are flowing into US equities.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-re...inor_pos19

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Get ready for another Santa Claus rally: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee

Published: Nov 8, 2019 3:49 p.m. ET


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He predicts the S&P 500 will grow another 3% before year’s end

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By
CHRIS
MATTHEWS

MARKETS REPORTER

December is typically a great month for the stock market — it had never been the worst month for stock performance in a year until 2018, when the S&P 500 tumbled more than 9% in December.

But even during that period, the stock market benefited from the so-called Santa Claus rally that has typically powered gains at the end of December: Starting Dec. 26, the S&P 500 climbed an impressive 6.6% in just four trading sessions through the end of the year.

This year, Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, predicts U.S. stocks will benefit from another Santa Claus rally — this time without all the ugliness in the run-up to Christmas. “We are in the final eight weeks of 2019, and roughly the start of the Santa Claus rally,” he wrote in a Thursday note to clients. He added that “this effect [has been] very strong in the last 20 years.”

Since 1998, when the S&P 500 was up more than 9.5% from the beginning of the year through the first week in November, the average further gain is 4%, while there has been a positive gain in 10 out of 10 cases, he pointed out.


In an interview with MarketWatch, Lee said that he is confident another leg higher for stocks is coming, despite flat earnings growth for much of 2019, because the market has yet to catch up to the rapid earnings growth seen in 2018. “For the last two years, earnings have grown faster than price. Since 2017, earnings have grown 11% per year and the market is up only 7% per year,” he said. “What’s happening now is a catch-up in stock prices.”

He said the biggest risk to this outlook would be an “external shock” like a trade-war escalation or hard Brexit, but he doesn’t believe that we need to see a resolution to the U.S.-China trade conflict for the market to continue to march higher.

“I don’t think the trade war has to be resolved to support the rally,” he said. “The reason we don’t think that’s necessary, is that companies have shown in the face of this trade uncertainty that they’ve been able to maintain margins and outperform expectations. It’s a deterioration of the situation that would hurt equities, but not maintaining the status quo.”

Lee, who raised his year-end target for the S&P 500 to 3,185, argued that Wall Street bears, who have spent much of the year fretting that weak growth abroad would infect the U.S., misunderstand “the U.S. is decoupling from the rest of the world.”

“The U.S. outlook isn’t dependent on trade, it’s dependent on positive population growth,” a trait that is unique to the United States among wealthy countries, he said. “The underlying driver of the economy is population growth, and particularly growth in the important 30-year-old to 50-year-old age range.”
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#2
Laughing
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#3
A 1930s black swan event would be unforgettable
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#4
Dow Jones powered up again !
Apple, Microsoft, FB and several US stocks trading new highs.
Still happy keeping my Apples shares..
Think those working in US tech companies here with their share options are very happy for Xmas !

Asia stocks like Sin equities still lagging. Think nervous investors not willing to buy into Asia story less the sell offs start.

Reminded all last year to load up on US stocks and forget about Sin or Asia stocks. Can sleep easy.

Though, recently looking at HK and China stocks and researching to load up some.

Any thoughts ?
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#5
Dow closing at 30,000 and Apple at $300.50 !
Hm.mm always thought that China's Xi and US Trump both follow the stock indices !
So timely that China Central Bank cuts its reserve ratio requirement !

So do I take profit or wait for next target ?
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#6
A few days ago, Trump's economic advisor predicts that Dow will hit 32,000 by end of 2020. He has also predicted the Dow will hit 30,000 in the first few months of 2020.



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#7
Rolling on the flor laughing Rolling on the flor laughing Rolling on the flor laughing
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#8
Wow ! Dow futures and Nasdaq futures filled the gaps at 28550 and 8745 !
Tonight will be very interesting ! Week closing. Gold also testing previous high !
All the stars r in alignment as they say..

Question is up or down from here ?
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#9
Sold off my US stocks last week and bought S & P and Nasdaq puts.
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#10
Wow :! What a sell off ! Happy I sold all my US shares at the high (modest) and have lots of ammo for the next run.
But the way this self off is done, damage to the bull run already and will be very slow in getting back to its rally again.
V shape recovery - not so sure as it is not just economic but political as well !

Why?

Democrats controlled media having a field day causing panic in US with death reports of common flu as corona virus infected.

Also heard the mid 2019/2020 huge rally was triggered by young investors and foreign capital who had no other ways to park their monies and many traded on margins...
That's why when the self off came it was fast and furious and even Gold which reached a high was sold down to meet margin calls. Retailers sold off their gold jewellers to tide over tough times.

Heard from son that his rich classmates also traded in US stocks ! haha... the "last wave" as they say ! Tesla, Virgin , FAANG stocks all went parabolic !

Imagine when I wrote about Apple , it was $150 in Jan 2019 !

Dow held the 25000, if breaks again and close lower than previous low, 20,000 possible - back to Jan 2019 level .... then I will buy large !
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