Today’s China will never be a superpower
#1
https://www.ft.com/content/233b101e-7d51...85092ab560

Reform aside, there are three obstacles to China’s long-term economic growth. The first is the debt problem. At some stage, the costs of debt have to be borne, whether by people, companies or the government, and whether by inflating debt away, increasing taxation or cutting public investment and spending.

The second obstacle is demographics. While China’s population will continue to grow for perhaps a decade, its labour force is already shrinking — precipitously. China’s official birth rate of 1.6 children per woman is one of the world’s lowest, even as its population ages. The costs of social security, of caring for the elderly, will be enormous. Labour productivity must rise very quickly.

Another demographic fact is worrying in terms of instability: gender imbalance. The old one child policy reinforced cultural preferences, meaning that over the coming decades China will have between 30m and 40m men in the sexually active bracket of 20-40 years of age who will not find a partner. Their frustration may lead to unrest and instability.

The third problem, and perhaps the greatest, is a looming water crisis in 12 northern provinces that account for 41 per cent of China’s population, 38 per cent of its agriculture, 46 per cent of its industry and 50 per cent of its power generation. Neither water transfers nor desalination can prevent severe economic, social and political dislocation. What is required, if it is not already too late (and climate change looks likely to make the region drier), are massive changes in agriculture, industry and people’s lifestyles. A prime instrument would be the correct pricing of water. But raising the price by many times, as the head of one Beijing water company suggested (only to be told to pipe down), is politically impossible: the Chinese Communist party (CCP) fears that the resulting dislocation and inflation would cause unrest.

It is commonly said that if any government is capable of pushing through change, however unpopular, it is the CCP. If that were so, Mr Xi would not have expended so much energy in cajoling and excoriating officials for failure to implement his policies. The governance model is flawed: 1.4bn people cannot be governed using top down fiat and inspection, while eschewing self-regulation.

Yet Mr Xi has specifically turned his back on four useful allies:


the rule of law and an independent judiciary, which is essential for business and private sector confidence;

a free press, for example to help expose corruption or abuse of the environment;

civil society, from where ideas, innovation and pressure flow;

and some sort of political accountability, to encourage officials to work for the benefit of the people and not of themselves or the party.

All four of those allies weaken party controls and risk leading eventually to a pluralist system, undermining one party rule. So the CCP rejects them.

To the factors above can be added a lack of trust by the people in the CCP. Nationalism is an inadequate substitute. To give one example of this lack of trust, consider the internationalisation of the Chinese currency. A superpower must surely have a currency that is freely traded throughout the world. But what would happen if China opened its capital account? Because the people don’t trust the party, today’s capital flight would become a flood.



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Journalism is about covering important stories. With a pillow, until they stop moving
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#2
习近平一错再错,不懂经济却独揽大权






陈破空:人民大学教授向松祚的发言在国内网络上引起大轰动,最后相关信息遭当局删除。其实他的讲话很诚恳,向当局提出要有反思能力。说到执政能力,其中有个能力就是反思能力,也就是纠错的能力,拨乱反正的能力。文革结束时,从华国锋到邓小平、胡耀邦、赵紫阳,他们都有纠错能力,但改革开放四十年后,现在当局似乎反而丧失了这种能力。虽然还在讲知错就改,但也只是语言而已,打心底里他们固步自封、顽固不化。按邓小平的话来说就是教条主义,一切都从本本出发,所以现在才面临亡党亡国的危机。其实向松祚提及的这两个数字和我们本来估计的也相差不远,因为中共公布的数据独此一家。其实习近平在执政之初把经济大权揽过来时,我和很多同僚就不看好,如今不幸言中。因为在毛泽东之后的中共历史上,都是党总书记主政,国务院总理主管经济,江朱时代,胡温时代都是如此。但到了习近平时代,他大权独揽,把经济大权也从李克强总理手中夺过来。前后两个五年,习近平抛弃党政分开,搞起“党党管理”。第一个五年是“习王”时代,这个王是王岐山。也就是总书记是中纪委书记治国。第二个五年依旧是“习王”时代,这个王是王沪宁,也就是总书记和总管意识形态的常务书记治国。他亲信治国,任人唯亲达到顶峰,现在他认为一个副总理刘鹤就能治理好所有经济问题。他还指着刘鹤跟外国领导人说,他是我最信任的人。但能不能信任主要得看能力,或者他的团队有没有能力。所以,今天中国经济的败象,除了是大势所趋和经济周期等因素,最主要还是因为习近平本人根本不懂经济,却要独揽经济大权。
Journalism is about covering important stories. With a pillow, until they stop moving
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#3
So, why worry so much about China?

Relax lah! Laughing
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#4
China thanks Obamao thumbs up
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#5
aiya 猪八毛只有八毛钱
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#6
China is alrdy a super power lah

What talking you?

Go back to your dreamland lah when your offsprings scramble for crumbs in China vast land
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#7
Today, there are 2 super powers.


Rolling on the flor laughing
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#8
11-7-2019 11:36 PM
WhatDoYouThink said:
aiya 猪八毛只有八毛钱

有八毛,不是五毛啊?
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#9
11-7-2019 11:22 PM
polanski said:
So, why worry so much about China?

Relax lah! Laughing


Ruled like a dynasty can be a long term burden to PRC.
Multi-parties system can ensure the survival of the country in decades to come.
Best to see the outcome of two parties system between KMT & CCP power sharing......
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#10
猪八毛这样厉害啊! 他说了算的吗?

Rolling on the flor laughing
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