World Record? Up 500% After I Bought On 18Mar2020
Comments1 | + Follow

I have done a back test in the period from 23rd April 2007 to 1st July 2008. In this period the situation was similar to what I think we are facing. CL will more than double its value within an 18 months time frame.

In this period
CL gained 114%
USO gained 124%
BCOMCLTR gained 121%
CRUD gained 95%

I am using CRUD instead of USO because I am concerned of the impact of the insane inflows USo is getting, which might create some problems during roll overs. But, to be honest, I am not sure if CRUD will not face the same issue. The bottom line is that I believe I will be able to capture most of the ride up with CRUD. My only big question is: Why I am not brave enough to put 100% in LOIL?
Raw Energy
Comments10096 | + Follow

Something like 25% of all futures contracts for the prompt month are held by USO. USO's assets have surged 400% in the past month, reflecting investors' desire to buy in "cheaply."

In the past week alone, $1 B in new capital has been received.

Clearly investors do not understand the risk of the monthly roll in a market with steep contango. Buying prompt month oil futures is not the same as buying physical quantities of oil.

To attempt to minimize the monthly risk, USO will now be investing 20% of its assets in the 2nd month contracts, effective yesterday. This does not change anything the author says in the article, except possibly to re-emphasize that with everyone piling in on the long side, the contrarian investment is to go short.
17-4-2020 3:03 PM
5354 said:
USO daily price chart

Potential 100% gain from present price when WTI Crude Oil price recovers back to US$40 per barrel

[Image: g5Kl2CG.png]

Ladies and gentlemen

USO now US$3.71/72

Who dare to buy?
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